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5 Cross-Platform Sports Arbitrage Strategies Between Polymarket and KalshiPrediction Markets

5 Cross-Platform Sports Arbitrage Strategies Between Polymarket and Kalshi

This article breaks down five concrete cross-platform arbitrage strategies for the 2026 World Cup using live market data pulled from Polymarket's CLOB API and Kalshi's public pricing on June 11, 2026. Every calculation here uses real numbers, real fee formulas, and real order book depths. Nothing hypothetical.

Ezekiel Njuguna·June 8, 2025
18 min
Superforecasters vs. Prediction Markets: Who Wins in 2025?Forecasting

Superforecasters vs. Prediction Markets: Who Wins in 2025?

A calibration comparison of Good Judgment Project superforecasters against Polymarket prices across 200+ resolved questions.

Mary Ngaruiya·June 5, 2025
10 min
The Crypto Fear Index Is Broken. Heres What Actually Predicts DrawdownsCrypto Sentiment

The Crypto Fear Index Is Broken. Heres What Actually Predicts Drawdowns

The popular Crypto Fear & Greed Index has a 0.12 correlation with 30-day forward returns. Three lesser-known indicators do significantly better.

James Chen·June 3, 2025
9 min
Building a Kalshi Trading Bot in Python: Complete Guide with Live APIHow-To Guides

Building a Kalshi Trading Bot in Python: Complete Guide with Live API

A step-by-step build tutorial for an automated Kalshi trading bot, with working code tested against the live API.

Ezekiel Njuguna·June 1, 2025
18 min
Polymarket vs. Kalshi vs. Metaculus: Platform Comparison for Serious ForecastersPlatform Reviews

Polymarket vs. Kalshi vs. Metaculus: Platform Comparison for Serious Forecasters

A data-driven comparison of the three major prediction platforms, covering liquidity, fee structures, market coverage, calibration, and user experience.

Mary Ngaruiya·May 28, 2025
14 min
Why Political Prediction Markets Got 2024 Wrong (And What Changed)Political Markets

Why Political Prediction Markets Got 2024 Wrong (And What Changed)

Prediction markets showed consistent biases in the 2024 U.S. election cycle. A post-mortem analysis.

Mary Ngaruiya·May 25, 2025
11 min
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